Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
